November 2024: Global MacroΩInsights
Politics, Culture & Economics - Edition 011
POLITICS
USA
Trump Elected 47th US President
Presidential Election 2024 NBC Live Results: Donald Trump wins
The clean sweep of all 7 battleground states was won by Trump:
Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Nevada.
Trump won while receiving mostly negative attention on media. His appearances on podcasts like Joe Rogan and Nelk Boys really helped him.
Post Election Victory Speech
Trump Cabinet & Staff Nominations
Senate confirmation not required
Tracking Trump's Cabinet and Staff Picks: Who Has He Nominated So Far? - The New York Times
Senate confirmation required
Tracking Trump's Cabinet and Staff Picks: Who Has He Nominated So Far? - The New York Times
No Libertarian was picked even though he made a promise he would select one to join his cabinet team and one in a senior post at the Libertarian National Convention.
The LEFT Implodes & Turns Against Itself
FEC fillings show Kamala Harris' team blew funds on Hollywood stars and private jets.
Mainstream media lose their mind over the “power” Elon holds through his platform X which he has used to prop up Trump. For which they argue and cry for online censorship since they have lost control of the narratives.
Pentagon Fails Audit…. Again
Pentagon has failed its 7th audit, saying it cannot fully account for what its $824 billion budget is spent on.
DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency)
On X → https://x.com/DOGE
More Government to solve the problem of more government?
Elon Musk & Vivek Ramaswamy are to lead this front. Let’s see what they make of this pursuit.
Some highlighted waste from the US Government with approved grants that DOGE would seek to eliminate and cut:
$45 million for a diversity and inclusion scholarship in Burna
$3 million for “girl-centered climate action” in Brazil
$288,563 for diverse bird watcher group
$100,000 to study if tequila or gin makes sunfish more aggressive
Nearly $1M to study if cocaine makes Japanese quail more sexually promiscuous
$750,000 to study if the moon landing line was “One small step for Man” or “One small step for ‘A’ man”— the study was inconclusive.
$45 million for a diversity and inclusion scholarship in Burma
$3 million for “girl-centered climate action” in Brazil
$288,563 for diverse bird watcher groups
$28 million on licensing fees for a green “camouflage” pattern on Afghan National Army uniforms
$2.5 million on a Super Bowl Ad for the Census
$1.7 million for holograms of dead comedians
$500,000 to build an IHOP in Washington
The House Oversight Committee spent $3.3 billion on furniture over the past few years.
Ukraine/Russia War
USA closes the Kyiv embassy due to “potential significant air attacks.”
Biden rushes to send $6 billion in taxpayer funds to Ukraine after Trump wins.
Following the Trump win, it is as though Biden is seeking to cause an escalation in the geo-political arena to leave Trump to deal with worse conditions. Biden authorized Ukraine to use long range western missiles to attack deeper into Russia. Earlier in September, Putin had warned that NATO would be entering into direct war with Russia if such tactics were to be used by Ukraine.
Then France authorizes Ukraine to use French SCLAP missiles to strike inside Russia:
“France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said on Monday, November 18, that Paris remained open to allowing Ukraine to use French long-range missiles to strike military targets inside Russia, after the United States cleared Kyiv to use American missiles for the same purpose.”
2 days later, Ukraine fires US-made ATACMS missiles at Russia.
Ukraine fires French and UK supplied Storm Shadow missiles into Russia for the first time.
Russia’s Dimitry Medvedev issues statement after Ukraine strikes inside Russia with western weapons that
“Russia’s new nuclear doctrine means NATO missiles fired against our country could be deemed an attack by the bloc on Russia. Russia could retaliate with WMD against Kiev and key NATO facilities, wherever they are located. That means World War 3.”
US, Greece, Spain and Italy shut down their embassies in Ukraine in anticipation of Russian retaliation from Ukraine attack inside Russia with Western missiles.
Russia retaliates by notifying the US first before launching IRBMs that have no nuclear payload. Putin clearly wanted them to observe their use of advanced hypersonic missiles systems.
European Support of Ukraine Against Russia
The German Foreign Minister in an interview explained that the money they sent to Ukraine was cut from schools and daycare centers, and also the German Railways were not modernized due to a lack of funds.
Watch her say this here —> https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1855225261215621190
The 15 largest European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization might have to ramp up military investment by as much as $340 billion annually to $720 billion, BI analysts led by George Ferguson wrote.
Putin Commentary
Putin stated in his keynote address at the 21st annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club in Sochi that:
“western liberalism has degenerated into extreme intolerance and aggression towards any alternative, towards any sovereign and independent thought, and now justifies neo-Nazism, terrorism, racism and even mass genocide of the civilian population.”
Putin even reinforces his position with Taiwan stating that “Taiwan is part of China” something the USA clearly do not hold as they keep supplying them with weapons.
Russia & China relationship
The Chinese First Lady Peng Liyuan sings a traditional Russian song in Russian on Russian TV. Something she has been doing for years.
Watch Here —> https://x.com/its_maria012/status/1854858479267463491
USA vs CHINA
At the end of November, USA and Taiwan sign an arms deals, involving spare parts and support for F-16 fighter aircraft and follow-up support for Improved Mobile Subscriber Equipment (IMSE), at a total cost of US$387 million. It was the 18th arms sale approved by the administration of President Joe Biden to Taiwan and the sixth since Taiwan's Jan. 13 presidential and legislative elections.
The Chinese Secretary of Defense refused to meet US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Loas.
It doesn’t help that USA ignores everything China is concerned about and keep militarizing Asian territories near China.
To this previous point made, US White House said its forces are backing Philippine military operations in the disputed South China Sea, where Manila and Beijing have clashed over competing claims.
“Task Force-Ayungin enhances US-Philippine alliance coordination and interoperability by enabling US forces to support Armed Forces of the Philippines activities in the South China Sea,” Kanishka Gangopadhyay, spokesperson at the US Embassy in Manila, said in a statement.
Middle East
Netanyahu fires Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
Massive protests in Israel erupt, with people calling him a traitor and protestors creating road blockades. Even military soldiers are seen in the streets protesting after this development.
Biden approves $680 million arms sale to Israel.
Direct hits of Israel army bases by Hezbollah.
Hezbollah media spokesman was assassinated by Israel
ICC puts out an arrest warrant on Israel’s Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant. A few Western nations said they would enforce it, such as Canada’s Trudeau. In response, Lindsey Graham threatened US allies that if they did arrest Netanyahu, the USA would sanction and crush their economies. The White House said they do not accept the arrest warrants and that the ICC is outside their jurisdictions on this matter.
The United States withdraws the aircraft carrier Lincoln from the Middle East after coming under attack from Yemen’s Houthis and deploys B-52 bombers to the middle east.
The conflict is still going on strong in the region. More and more of the Middle East is being pulled into conflict.
Syria
Fighting in the northwestern Syria at the end of the month of November has escalated leaving a supposed few dozen civilians dead. Syrian rebels have made their moves. December report will reveal where this development in Syria has escalated into.
Turkey
Turkey officially ends all relations with Israel
Erdogan said 52 countries and two international organizations had expressed their support for the arms embargo initiative Turkey launched at the United Nations in early November, aimed at preventing the shipment of weapons and ammunition to Israel.
Jordan
Intense gunfight breakout around the Israeli Embassy in Jordan.
Watch Here —> https://youtube.com/shorts/j93S8DFmH5M?si=AVOKFyztyPHL1Fmz
India
Conducts its first successful test of a long-range hypersonic missile, showing India’s access to high-tech military weapons in the hands of only a few countries.
China
Former Bank of China Chairman Liu Liange had been sentenced to death, which was later suspended. This is over bribery charges. HIs penalty carries a 2 year reprieve with all his assets to be seized. With behavior, he may not be executed. He had been found to have accepted over $17 million (121 million yuan) in bribes and illegally facilitated the issuance of $3.3 billion yuan in loans.
Other financial executives to have been sentenced to death with reprieve include Tian Huiyu, the former president of China Merchants Bank Co., Sun Deshun, ex-president of China Citic Bank Corp., and Wang Bin, a previous chairman of China Life Insurance Co.
Lai Xiaomin, the former chairman of China Huarong Asset Management Co., was executed in January 2021 for bribery and other crimes.
G-20 Summit
The 2024 G20 Summit took place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, under the theme "Together for a Just and Sustainable Future." It emphasized addressing global challenges like economic inequality, environmental sustainability, and international cooperation.
The G20 comprises 19 countries including: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Türkiye, United Kingdom, and United States and two regional bodies, namely the European Union and the African Union.
The G20 members include the world’s major economies, representing 85% of global Gross Domestic Product, over 75% of international trade, and about two-thirds of the world population. It was founded in 1999 after the Asian financial crisis of 1997 – 1998 as an informal forum for the Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors of the most important industrialized and developing economies to discuss international economic and financial stability.
READ HERE → G20 Rio de Janeiro Leaders' Declaration
Focused this year’s work on three priorities:
(i) social inclusion and the fight against hunger and poverty;
(ii) sustainable development, energy transitions and climate action; and
(iii) the reform of global governance institutions.
Notably at this event, Biden pledged $4 billion for the World Bank unit dedicated to providing loans and grants to the poorest nations. More on President Biden’s participation at the 2024 G-20 summit.
READ HERE → FACT SHEET: Continuing a Legacy of Leadership at the G20 | The White House
At the Summit, the Prime Minister announced over $68 million in new investments to crack down on organized crime and drug smuggling, support climate action and conservation, and protect more women and girls – while increasing their participation in the economy.
This includes:
Close to $24 million to stop drug and human trafficking into Canada, strengthen multinational law enforcement capacity to prevent money laundering, bolster resources to respond to threats from organized crime and terrorists, increase collaboration with international security organizations, and enhance the capacities of international airports in Latin America and the Caribbean to deter and detect the shipment of illicit drugs.
Over $25 million to help restore global biodiversity, support measures to alleviate malnutrition, work with farmers in climate-stressed regions to support conservation efforts, and enhance food security in regions most affected.
Over $19 million to support women and girls in Latin America by preventing discrimination and violence, helping more women participate in conservation efforts and land and water resource management, and improving health services for at-risk women, including Indigenous women.
COP29
The COP29 climate conference, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, focused on critical global issues. ”In Solidarity for a Green World” is their claimed purpose, bringing together nearly 200 countries. With a central focus on climate finance:
For rich countries to triple finance to developing countries, from the previous goal of USD 100 billion annually, to USD 300 billion annually by 2035.
Secure efforts of all actors to work together to scale up finance to developing countries, from public and private sources, to the amount of USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035.
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement
“A notable achievement during the past two weeks was the progress made on carbon markets. After nearly a decade of work, countries have agreed on the final building blocks that set out how carbon markets will operate under the Paris Agreement, making country-to-country trading and a carbon crediting mechanism fully operational. On country-to-country trading (Article 6.2), the decision out of COP29 provides clarity on how countries will authorize the trade of carbon credits and how registries tracking this will operate. And there is now reassurance that environmental integrity will be ensured up front through technical reviews in a transparent process.
On day one of COP29, countries agreed standards for a centralized carbon market under the UN (Article 6.4 mechanism). This is good news for developing countries, who will benefit from new flows of finance. And it is particularly good news for least developed countries, who will get the capacity-building support they need to get a foothold in the market. This mechanism, known as the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism, is underpinned by mandatory checks for projects against strong environmental and human rights protections, including safeguards that ensure a project can’t go ahead without explicit, informed agreement from Indigenous Peoples. It also allows anyone affected by a project to appeal a decision or file a complaint.
Under the text agreed on Article 6.4, there is a clear mandate for the UN carbon market to align with science. It tasks the Body getting this market up and running to consider the best available science across all work going forward. The work on carbon markets doesn’t stop in Baku. The Supervisory Body setting up the new carbon crediting mechanism has been handed a long 2025 to-do list by Parties and will continue to be accountable to them.”
Gender and climate change
“Countries agreed a decision on gender and climate change, extending the enhanced Lima Work Programme on Gender and Climate Change for another 10 years, reaffirming the importance of gender equality and advancing gender mainstreaming throughout the convention. They also agreed to develop a new gender action plan for adoption at COP30, which will set the direction for concrete implementation.”
At COP 29, numerous new initiatives, declarations, reports, funding opportunities and other activities were launched. This summary document provides an overview of the key outcomes of global climate action across the COP 29 Presidency’s two pillars of the COP 29 Vision: Enhance Ambition, Enable Action.
→ Summary_Global_Climate_Action_at_COP_29.pdf
UN Chief Urges Unity @ COP 29 “Keep your eyes on the bigger picture to tackle climate crises.”
CULTURE
Illegal Immigration
Illegal immigration continues to cause cultural friction as it ripples down from policies as many watch foreigners get more advantages and benefits than their fellow Americans who may be poor on the streets or their Vets who may also be on the streets.
Now with Trump to be in office in 2025, he has promised mass deportation of illegals.
UK Farmers Protest 20% Inheritance Wealth Tax
Somehow, as usual, the Government and their “experts” think taxes will force redistribution of properties. And that somehow, farms are a tax/wealth haven for the rich……….. and so they want to make enemies of the people who produce the necessary resources to feed humans.
How many farmers are even liquid enough to be capable of paying that tax as the property is passed on?
How many farmers are actually rich? well -off?
Will this de-incentivize new generations from farming?
The more governments seek to control/manipulate farmers with their “righteous” intentions, the more they will destroy the farming industry, and most likely nationalize food production, or direct it into the hands of major corps who walk hand in hand with bureaucrats.
Dismantling DEI in Corporate America
We saw Boeing, Toyota, Walmart, Lowe’s, and Ford as examples of major companies taking 180 reversals on their DEI initiatives.
Think about it, does focusing on race produce any significant positive momentum? Of course not, it is merely the consequence of companies bending the knee to Woke delusional ideals.
Meritocracy is the only oath forward for any strong enterprise.
Manufacturing protests in Germany
The following quoted texts is from:
—> https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/german-government-collapses-mass-strikes-grind-economy-halt
“Sensing that the economy is about to go from bad to much worse, last Tuesday - amid mounting concern about the imminent collapse of the EU’s largest manufacturing economy - Germany's giant trade union IG Metall launched strikes in the nation’s metal and electrical industries in an attempt to win higher wages. According to the tabloid Bild, employees began walking off the job during the night shift, including at Volkswagen’s plant in the city of Osnabruck, where workers worry the plant may be closed.
Elsewhere, around 200 employees of the battery manufacturer Clarios went on strike in Hanover, Lower Saxony, carrying torches and union flags, the outlet wrote.
Meanwhile, in Hildesheim, Lower Saxony, around 400 employees, including those at Jensen GmbH, KSM Castings Group, Robert Bosch, Waggonbau Graaff and ZF CV Systems Hannover, have reportedly halted operations.
Protests are also expected at BMW and Audi plants in Bavaria. Work is to be stopped nationwide during the course of the day, the tabloid wrote.
”The fact that production lines are now at a standstill and offices are empty is the responsibility of the employers,” IG Metall’s negotiator and district manager Thorsten Groger stated, as quoted by Deutsche Welle.
IG Metall is demanding a 7% pay raise compared to the 3.6% raise over a period of 27 months offered by employers’ associations, due to soaring inflation. The companies call such demands unrealistic.
The mass strikes come as Volkswagen announced on Monday it would close “at least” three of its ten plants in Germany, lay off tens of thousands of staff and downsize remaining plants in the country. The measures are part of a cost-cutting drive, the conglomerate said earlier. Oliver Blume, chief executive of the VW Group, has cited a “difficult economic environment” and “failing competitiveness of the German economy” as factors behind the decision.
The German Association of the Automotive Industry warned last year that the country was “dramatically losing its international competitiveness” due to soaring energy costs.”
They key message in this is that Europe is destroying its competitive advantage and manufacturing industries because of the bureaucrats ignoring basic economics and causing high energy prices, from climate and energy policies.
Elon Musk is summoned by British Government for a “misinformation” hearing. To which Elon responds:
“UK MPs will be summoned to the United States of America to explain their censorship and threats to American citizens”
Georgians Continue to Protest
As the government delays the decision to join the EU, there is a division on this issue which is causing much cultural clashing. Protests and violent riots are taking place bringing in police and enforcement.
ECONOMICS
CENTRAL BANKS
FED (Federal Reserve) → cut rates by 0.25, down to a run rate of 4.5% to 4.75%. Stands at 4.58%
Jerome Powell says he will not step down after Trump steps in as the new President.
Some statements from Jerome Powell on the economy.
Economy not signaling a need for FED to hurry rate cuts
Inflation is heading toward 2% on sometimes bumpy path
The recent performance of the US economy has been remarkably good, allowing central bankers room to lower rates carefully.
FOMC Meeting with Jerome Powell
ECB (European Central Bank) → warns of another eurozone crises from low growth and high debt
Source —> Financial Stability Review, November 2024
BOC (Bank of Canada) → CURRENT POLICY INTEREST RATE: 3.75%
Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada says that allowing a period of price declines would be painful for Canadians.
Go figure the Government doesn’t want deflation. They need inflation to sustain their spending and deficits and to maintain the illusion of being under control over the economy. Hence the insane words from Chrystia Freedland about the “vibecession”.
Freeland says the two-month GST holiday is meant to tackle the 'vibecession'
BOE → cut rates by 0.25%, down to 4.75%
Read Here —> Monetary Policy Report - November 2024
USA
National debt surpasses $36 trillion. Over $2 trillion of debt will have been added in 2024 by year end. Will it be $3 trillion by end of 2025?
Is $40 trillion likely by the end of 2027, 3 years from the start of 2025? At this rate, USA is looking at $55-$60 trillion of national debt by 2030. What will that environment look like?
Employment data revised down:
“The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) edged up to 1.6 million, an increase from 1.3 million a year earlier. Additionally, the number of people employed part-time for economic reasons remained elevated at 4.6 million.
The report also revealed significant downward revisions to previous months’ data. August’s job gains were revised down by 81,000 to 78,000, while September’s were reduced by 31,000 to 223,000. These revisions suggest that the labor market may have been weaker than initially reported in late summer and early fall.”
A lot of the employment strength is coming from government created jobs and government stimulus/liquidity into the market, as they continue to expand debt levels while preaching “strength”.
S&P Global Flash US PMI®
Flash US PMI Composite Output Index(1): 55.3 (Oct: 54.1). 31 month high. Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index(2): 57.0 (Oct: 55.0). 32-month high. Flash US Manufacturing Output Index(3): 46.3 (Oct: 49.2). 23 month low. Flash US Manufacturing PMI(4): 48.8 (Oct: 48.5). 4-month high.
Battle of Tariffs - Economic Warfare
Trump promised as of day 1 in office, he would hike tariffs (a tax) on goods coming from Mexico, Canada and China.
“On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders.”
Equities Front
Below is a graph showing the record level of corporate executives selling stocks, meanwhile we have the equities market hitting record highs while debt is hitting record levels. The general market is being pulled in to inflate equities at peak levels until mainstream pulls the rug on them. As usual.
China
China approves a $839 billion program to refinance local government debt, as Beijing rolls out more measures to support a slowing economy.
Chinese mutual fund houses are cutting fees on their exchange-traded fund products as calls grow to support the nation’s $10 trillion stock market
Europe
Swiss Finance Minister Keller-Sutter told Swiss newspaper Aargauer Zeitung that the country’s banks have exhausted public goodwill and taxpayers can't pay for the misconduct of banks:
“What I can say clearly is that it cannot be the case that taxpayers foot the bill for the misconduct of banks and managers, no one in this country understands this anymore - the goodwill has been used up.”
Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz fires The Finance Minister, Christian Lindner stating:
"He (Lindner) has broken my trust too many times, no more basis of trust for further cooperation."
Meanwhile, Lindner accused the chancellor of a "calculated break-up of the coalition."
The coalition had been at odds for a while, with serious strains on the budget for 2025 and a disappointing performance by the German economy eliciting increasingly different suggestions on how to face and solve the problems.
what is wrong in Europe’s largest economy?
Keep watching the regression in Europe’s economies.
In line with the clear reality of the regression, some wise words were stated by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov highlighting the economic position of European countries:
"German companies cannot compete in European and global markets because they don’t have affordable, cheap energy sources anymore.”
Global Infrastructure
China opens a $3.5 billion mega-port in Chancay, Peru. President Xi hailed the project as :
“the birth of a new land-sea passage for a new era, a successful case of Sino-Peruvian cooperation under the aegis of the Belt and Road Initiative, linking the great Inca trail and the maritime Silk Road."
Denmark hit by whole country mobile outage, halting even trains.
Global Markets
Japanese investors sold a record $61.9 billion in US securities in Q3 2024. Chinese funds offloaded $51.3 billion during Q3 2024, the 2nd largest amount ever recorded. This is data from the US Department of the Treasury. Japan and China still own $1.02 trillion and $731 billion worth of Treasuries respectively, underscoring their influence over the US debt market.
French Sovereign borrowing costs have soared to the highest premium since the eurozone debt crisis. The gap between French 10-year government bond yields and their German equivalent ballooned to as much as 90 basis points at one point, the widest level in 12 years
BRICS
An ex-chancellor in the UK has warned that the plan by BRICs bloc to create a separate banking payment system could render international sanctions useless. Lord Lamont of Lerwick warned that if a rival payments system by the BRICs blocs:
“ever happened, it would be a major threat to the Western-led financial system, but above all it would make it impossible for the West to impose sanctions on countries like Russia, China or Iran or other malign countries.”
Commodities
Russia restricts enriched Uranium exports to the United States.
“Russia said the move was a response to a ban imposed by the US on imports of Russian enriched uranium. President Joe Biden signed the legislation in May, but it allows for shipments to continue until 2028 under a system of waivers. The exceptions underscore a simple fact about the industry — that the US has allowed its domestic enrichment capacity to languish.
“We don’t have enough enriched uranium here,” Chris Gadomski, head nuclear analyst for BloombergNEF, said in an interview. “They should have been stockpiling enriched uranium in anticipation of this happening.”
Russia takes aim at US nuclear power by throttling uranium - MINING.COM
Gold/Silver Market
Goldman Sachs listed Gold among the top commodity trades for 2025 stating it will rally to a record price in 2025 based on central bank buying and US interest rate cuts. Co-Head of Global Commodities Research Samantha Dart sees gold hitting $3000 by end of 2025.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) brings back 102 tonnes that were stored in the custody of The Bank of England (BOE) and The Bank for International Settlements.
Texas proposes Gold and Silver backed currencies to compete with Fiat.
“House Bills 1049 and 1056, introduced by State Representative Mark Dorazio on November 12, would authorize the Texas Comptroller to issue physical coins and electronic currency, fully backed by gold and silver held in the Texas Bullion Depository.
Under the proposed legislation, residents could conduct transactions using gold and silver-backed currency that would be “electronically transferable to another person” and “redeemable in specie or at the spot price of gold in U.S. dollars minus applicable fees,” according to the Tenth Amendment Center’s analysis.
“The passage of this legislation would create a sound money alternative to U.S. dollars in both physical and electronic form,” said Mike Maharrey, Communications Director at the Tenth Amendment Center. He noted that users could conduct business “using a debit card that seamlessly converts gold and silver to fiat currency in the background.”
The initiative parallels a separate blockchain proposal championed by Representative Cody Harris, who views state-issued gold-backed digital tokens as a pathway to wider cryptocurrency adoption.
“This is something safe that people can get their feet wet with,” Harris said at the North American Blockchain Summit. “It’s more of a stepping stone to owning Bitcoin than competing with it.”
The Euro hit an all time low against gold.