May 2025: Global MacroΩInsights
Politics, Economics & Culture - Edition 017
POLITICS
INDIA & PAKISTAN CONFLICT COMES CLOSE TO WAR
Pakistan launched ballistic and cruise missiles at India
India strikes a Pakistani military base near the capital Islamabad with missiles
—> https://x.com/IranObserver0/status/1920958189786267982
Pakistan’s army said it struck several Indian military sites in retaliation for India’s missile strikes on airbases - a significant escalation in the conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
India officially announced that it will stop its water from flowing over international borders. This Pakistan threatens would cause significant retaliation.
Trump brokered a peace deal between India & Pakistan
India bans around 8.000 X accounts, trying to twist the truth.
X has been ordered by the Indian government to block 8,000+ accounts, including those of international news organizations and prominent X users. Noncompliance could mean major fines or jail time for local staff. X agreed to block the accounts, it protested against the order citing fundamental right of free speech.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL & USA Ties
Mike Waltz was dismissed because he was working ‘too much’ for Israel and pushing the US in a WAR with Iran. He was the National Security Advisor. The Washington Post reports that Mike Waltz was dismissed due to his extensive communication with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about military action against Iran……. Ironic as the time you will be reading this, this becomes an actualized conflict as of mid June 2025.
Officials in the Trump administration believed he was trying to 'tip the scales in favor of military action' and was closely collaborating with the Israelis.
YEMEN’s Houthis & ISRAEL
A direct Yemeni hypersonic missile hit near Ben Gurion airport, evading Israeli and US defences. The following day, Israel begins a series of military strikes in Yemen.
Trump then also launches strikes in Yemen, following Israel. The Houthis accepts ceasefire.
ISRAEL STRIKES SYRIA
Israel launches major airstrikes on Syria's coast for the 1st time in nearly a month.
IRAN
The Iranian Armed Forces have released drone footage closely monitoring American warships and Fighter Jets in the Persian Gulf.
Trump at a conference stated that any country who buys oil from Iran will not be allowed to do business in the USA.
Meanwhile, as negotiations were advancing, Iran had proposed to enrich uranium for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, only if enrichment takes place on Iranian soil. Iran has developed highly advanced centrifuges for uranium enrichment, and the USA is demanding Iran ends enrichment, and to dismantle all nuclear facilities.
The 5th round of negotiations between Iran and the US ended without a collapse. But June shows this story takes a 180.
New Golden era of partnership between the United States and Saudi Arabia with $600 billion of commercial agreements.
Trump has dropped the requirement for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel as part of its nuclear agreement with the United States
In Saudi Arabia on May 13th, President Donald J. Trump announced Saudi Arabia’s $600-billion commitment to invest in the United States, building economic ties that will endure for generations to come.
“The following represent just a few of the many transformative deals secured in Saudi Arabia:
Saudi Arabian DataVolt is moving forward with plans to invest $20 billion in AI data centers and energy infrastructure in the United States.
Google, DataVolt, Oracle, Salesforce, AMD, and Uber are committing to invest $80 billion in cutting-edge transformative technologies in both countries.
Iconic American companies including Hill International, Jacobs, Parsons, and AECOM are building key infrastructure projects like King Salman International Airport, King Salman Park, The Vault, Qiddiya City, and much more totaling $2 billion in U.S. services exports.
Additional major exports include GE Vernova’s gas turbines and energy solutions totaling $14.2 billion and Boeing 737-8 passenger aircraft for AviLease totaling $4.8 billion.
In the healthcare sector, Shamekh IV Solutions, LLC will be investing $5.8 billion, including a plant in Michigan to launch a high-capacity IV fluid facility.
Investment partnerships include several sector-specific funds with a strong emphasis on U.S. deployment—such as the $5 billion Energy Investment Fund, the $5 billion New Era Aerospace and Defense Technology Fund, and the $4 billion Enfield Sports Global Sports Fund—each channeling substantial capital into American industries, driving innovation, and creating high-quality jobs across the United States.
Underscoring our commitment to strengthening our defense and security partnership, the United States and Saudi Arabia signed the largest defense sales agreement in history—nearly $142 billion, providing Saudi Arabia with state-of-the-art warfighting equipment and services from over a dozen U.S. defense firms.
The sales that we intend to complete fall into five broad categories: (1) air force advancement and space capabilities, (2) air and missile defense, (3) maritime and coastal security, (4) border security and land forces modernization, and (5) information and communication systems upgrades.
The package also includes extensive training and support to build the capacity of the Saudi armed forces, including enhancement of Saudi service academies and military medical services.
This deal represents a significant investment in Saudi Arabia’s defense and regional security, built on American systems and training.”
U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on energy cooperation and a Memorandum of Cooperation (MOC) on critical minerals with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy H.R.H. Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud and H.E. Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef, respectively.
QATAR
Trump becomes first President to officially visit Qatar. In this visit, Trump and Qatar sign a joint declaration of cooperation valued at $1.2 trillion USD.
“ MAKING AMERICAN MANUFACTURING AND INNOVATION GREAT AGAIN: Today in Qatar, President Donald J. Trump signed an agreement with Qatar to generate an economic exchange worth at least $1.2 trillion. President Trump also announced economic deals totaling more than $243.5 billion between the United States and Qatar, including an historic sale of Boeing aircraft and GE Aerospace engines to Qatar Airways.” - White House Fact Sheet
USA
The Big Beautiful Bill or The Big Ugly Lie?
H.R.1 - One Big Beautiful Bill Act has passed the house of representatives May 22, 2025 → Yeas(215) - Nays(214)
THE REVELATION OF BIDENS MENTAL DECLINE
Jake Tapper says he did not see it, but now does.
Jen Psaki says he never saw Biden experience a mental decline
These bureaucrats and media propagandists are lying to everyone. Either they are absolute cowards, unable to admit how incapable of critical thinking they are, or they are just dumb. The entire republican party and voters screamed it for years, and were rejected for spreading misinformation/lies about Biden.
It is now revealed that Biden has stage 3 prostate cancer……… while his doctor and administration always stated he was in perfect health and fit to run another term for office. It was a cover up on his health and mental capabilities. So much frail intellect to not be able to conclude the inability of Biden as The President of the United States. And they wanted to run him through another term. The debate against Trump truly brought an end to the “Conservative Propaganda.”
COVID REGRET
HHS Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr. announced the CDC to stop recommending Covid shots for children, pregnant women. FDA no longer recommends COVID vaccine for healthy babies.
ISRAELI EMBASSY STAFF KILLE D IN USA
Two Israeli embassy staff were killed in a shooting outside an event at the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, DC
ALCATRAZ PRISON COMES BACK TO LIFE
United States to "rebuild and open" famous Alcatraz prison, President Trump announces.
"Today, I am directing the Bureau of Prisons, together with the Department of Justice, FBI, and Homeland Security, to reopen a substantially enlarged and rebuilt ALCATRAZ, to house America's most ruthless and violent offenders."
TRUMP VS UNIVERSITIES
US President Donald Trump's administration has revoked Harvard University's ability to enroll international students, the Department of Homeland Security said
Trump considers redirecting $3 billion in Harvard grants to US trade schools.
SMALL % of DOGE CUTS OFFICIALIZED
The White House will ask Congress next week to enact $9 billion of spending cuts into law — a small portion of the $175 billion in savings that Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency claims to have found. Could be even more supposed savings.
ELON LEAVES
Elon Musk officially leaves the Trump administration.
US defence secretary urges military build-up over ‘IMMINENT’ China threat
“U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reassured allies in the Indo-Pacific on Saturday that they will not be left alone to face increasing military and economic pressure from China, while insisting that they also contribute more to their own defense. He said Washington will bolster its defenses overseas to counter what the Pentagon sees as rapidly developing threats by Beijing, particularly in its aggressive stance toward Taiwan. China has conducted numerous exercises to test what a blockade would look like of the self-governing island, which Beijing claims as its own and the U.S. has pledged to defend.” - National Post
The Senate passes Trump’s “No Tax on Tips Act.”
→ Find more at CONGRESS.GOV
Highlights:
Democrats and Republicans praised the speedy passage of the bill and framed it as an example of successful bipartisanship. The legislation will now to go the House.
In a statement, Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-New York) cited waiters, bartenders and delivery drivers as examples of the types of employees who could become eligible for the tax exemption.
GOLDEN DOME PLAN
Trump unveiled a 3 year $175 billion ambitious U.S. missile defense initiative designed to intercept both global and space based threats. Canada is in talks to participate in this initiative.
The U.S. is creating a new system to track various types of missiles — one more sophisticated and multi-layered than Israel's Iron Dome, intended to detect intercontinental, hypersonic and shorter-range cruise weapons.
Tariff Games Continued
EU airlines saying they’re going to start buying Chinese COMAC planes instead of American Boeing's in response to the tariffs. This was announced by the Irish Ryanair. Reuters reported that US lawmakers immediately began threatening the company.
Japan threatens to dump U.S. Treasury holdings if trade negotiations don't go well
“Japan has signalled that it's willing to use what some refer to as its "nuclear option", utilizing the fact that it's America's largest foreign creditor by making its $1.1 trillion worth of US Treasury holdings a bargaining tool.” - Economic Times
Canada and the European Union agree to deepen free trade ties and economic cooperation. Trump then agreed to extend EU 50% tariff deadline to July 9
CHINA EXPORTS SHIFT AND GROW
China exports jump 8% in April despite tariffs
The rise in exports to Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand — all countries identified by analysts as rerouting hubs — shows how China is increasingly shipping products through third countries to keep goods flowing.
Exports to the U.S. fell by 21 percent last month, when Trump raised the minimum tariff to 145 percent on Chinese goods and Beijing responded with 125 percent tariffs on all American goods.
CHINA MAKES MOVES
China wants to work with Indonesia to tackle risks, challenges, Premier Li says by focusing on multilateralism. Indonesia is Southeast Asia’s biggest economy.
Li urged deeper cooperation between China and Indonesia in key areas including finance, new energy, the digital economy, artificial intelligence, aerospace, and maritime development.
Prabowo expressed looking forward to strengthening coordination with China on multilateral platforms such as ASEAN and BRICS. He reaffirmed his country's support for multilateralism, opposition to protectionism, and desire to work jointly with China in safeguarding the common interests of developing nations and tackling global challenges.
EUROPE
UK HANDS OVER CHAGOS ISLANDS TO CHINA
UK PM Keir Starmer signed a deal to hand the Chagos Islands to China-aligned Mauritius after 211 years for $101 million euros a year.
Under the terms of the agreement Mauritius would gain sovereignty of the islands from the UK, but allow the US and UK to continue operating a military base on one of the islands, Diego Garcia, for an initial period of 99 years.
This transfer supposedly threatens US access to Diego Garcia, a key base for Middle East and Indo-Pacific operations.
It enables control over sea lanes and chokepoints like the Malacca Strait, Bab-el-Mandeb, and Strait of Hormuz, and in wartime could cut China off from African markets, oil, and their port leases like Gwadar, Hambantota, and Djibouti.
The CHINA-IRAN RAIL CORRIDOR has been put into operation
The first freight train from China arrived in Iran in 15 days, compared to 30-40 days by sea.
Iran can now export oil to China through this corridor, and Chinese goods can also go to Europe unhindered by the US navy.
Senior leaders from the national railways of Iran, Kazakhstan, China, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Turkey met in Tehran on May 12 to discuss multilateral co-operation to develop an effective China – Kazakhstan – Uzbekistan – Turkmenistan – Iran – Turkey –Europe transport corridor.
GERMANY
Germany labeled its opposition party AfD as an "extremist organization." Earlier this year, Romania and France banned its opposition leaders from presidential elections.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio condemned the decision stating: “Germany just gave its spy agency new powers to surveil the opposition. That’s not democracy—it’s tyranny in disguise.”
Germany’s domestic intelligence service has withdrawn its newly announced classification of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party as a confirmed extremist organization — at least temporarily.
“Just six days after the agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, also known as the BfV, said it had gathered “definitive evidence” that the AfD seeks to undermine Germany’s democratic order, the BfV told an administrative court in Cologne that it will suspend the classification while legal proceedings are ongoing.
The BfV will now monitor the party only as a “suspected case,” a lower-tier designation that still allows surveillance, but under stricter judicial oversight.
The dramatic reversal comes after the AfD launched an urgent legal challenge, accusing the outgoing government of launching a politically motivated smear campaign days before leaving office. In its court filing, the BfV offered no explanation for the sudden shift.” - Politico
This is Western "democracy?"
RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Ukraine is starting to consider a shift away from the U.S. dollar, possibly linking its currency more closely to the euro.
The "strengthening of the EU's role in ensuring our defense capabilities, greater volatility in global markets, and the probability of global trade fragmentation," are all reasons Ukraine is considering the euro over the dollar stated National Bank Governor Andrii Pyshnyi
European Defense Chiefs to unleash new sanctions against Russia - ROUND 17
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says "Germany is going down the same path that once led it to ruin."
Putin offers direct talks with Ukraine in Turkey May 15th
→ Keir Starmer, PM of UK says that the UK will respond if Putin does not accept a ceasefire.
ARGENTINA
The libertarian leader’s party defeated Mauricio Macri’s PRO bloc May 18th in a Buenos Aires City Hall election, weakening the former president in a stronghold his party has governed uninterrupted for the past two decades.
WHO holds its 78th World Health Assembly in Geneva
Watch → LIVE: WHO holds its 78th World Health Assembly in Geneva | REUTERS
AFRICA
SUDAN
At least seven killed, 7 killed and 20 injured in bombings in South Sudan
NIGERIA
Militants kill at least 23 in Nigeria attack, security sources say
BURKINA FASO
The Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), a Sahelian jihadist group linked to al-Qaeda, has intensified its attacks against military and civilian targets in Burkina Faso. The jihadist offensive began on May 11 with an assault on the Djibo military camp in the province of Soum, in the north of the country. JNIM openly opposes the governments of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), made up of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
LIBYA
Clashes erupted between the 444th Brigade and the Stability Support Apparatus, two of the most powerful Tripoli militias. Libya's Government of National Unity (GNU), based in Tripoli, declared a state of emergency.
ECONOMICS
CENTRAL BANKS
FED
Leaves rates unchanged @ 4.5% → this is despite pressure from Trump asking for lower rates. Jerome Powell says they will take a wait and see approach.
BOC
BOC Statement on Release of the Financial Stability Report - Bank of Canada
Announced that 60% of households with a mortgage will face mortgage renewal in 2025/2026.
Households behind on credit card or auto loans continue to go up.
In the current context, the Bank will closely monitor: → Financial Stability Report—2025 - Bank of Canada
Indicators of financial stress—such as delinquency rates for businesses and households, especially for consumer credit products
Evidence of precautionary behaviour by financial system participants—such as borrowers drawing on lines of credit more than usual, many investors abruptly moving away from risky assets and leveraged positions, or banks building additional capacity to absorb losses
Availability of credit—including the extent to which households and businesses can refinance existing borrowing or fund new credit, particularly for workers and firms in sectors heavily exposed to tariffs
Conditions for funding and market liquidity—especially evidence of rapid or persistent deterioration in core funding markets such as government bond and repo markets
BOJ
PBOC
China’s central bank asked its major lenders to raise the share of yuan when facilitating cross-border trade, in its latest push for the use of the currency as the world grapples with the onslaught of tariffs by the US.
ECB
ECB supervisors are asking European Banks to assess their U.S. dollar needs in a crisis... in case they can't count on the federal reserve
USA
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a CNN interview that the USA has inherited a 6.7% deficit-to-GDP, the highest outside a war or recession. He says their focus is to grow the economy faster than the debt, that’s how we will stabilize debt-to-GDP.
In other words, what he is saying is that inflating the debt away is the solution. For deflation will not be permitted.
The U.S. has officially lost its last AAA credit rating.
Moody’s just downgraded U.S. debt, citing ballooning deficits and unsustainable interest costs. nation's $36 trillion in debt
10-year yield: 4.48%
Interest burden: “Significantly higher than peer nations”. This follows downgrades by Fitch (2023) and S&P (2011).
Fund Managers sold U.S. Bonds last month at the fastest pace in almost 22 years
America now shares a credit rating with Austria and Finland.
US auto loan serious delinquencies are rising at an alarming pace:
The share of auto loan balances at least 90 days past due hit 5.0% in Q1 2025, the most since the 2020 peak. This is also slightly below the post-2008 peak of 5.2%.
Transitions into a delinquency of 30+ days reached 8.0% in Q1 2025, the highest in 15 years. Serious delinquencies continue to surge elevated interest rates pressure consumers.
All while total US auto debt sits near a record $1.64 TRILLION.
Public Debt NET Interest Payment to GDP
CANADA
Canada gains 7.4k jobs in APR
Unemployment rate rises to 6.9%, highest level since 2021
Youth unemployment rate hits 13.7%
SPAIN
JAPAN
Japan's 30-year yield rises to highest on record
Japanese Stocks just saw a weekly outflow of almost $12 Billion, the largest in history
TAIWAN
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te said his government would set up a sovereign wealth fund to help domestic companies expand globally, a move to counter China’s attempts to isolate it. He explained that the fund would work by “fully utilising Taiwan’s industrial advantages, with the government taking the lead and cooperating with the power of private enterprises to deploy globally and connect the main target markets.”
GOLD
POLAND GOLD RESERVES
The National Bank of Poland governor says gold is a shield against global instability and a cornerstone of economic sovereignty. Poland now holds 509.3 tonnes of gold, more than the gold reserves of the European Central Bank (ECB).
GOLD BEATING EQUITIES?
Gold has surpassed equities as the second most popular long-term investment choice amongst Americans, according to the latest poll by Gallup, a Washington, D.C.-based analytics firm.
DOES THE ECB FEAR GOLD?
Gold markets could be a source of danger to the euro zone’s financial stability in the event of geopolitical stress, the European Central Bank said
Delivery issues could be a source of stress in future, said the ECB economists. They are Maurizio Michael Habib, Oscar Schwartz Blicke, Emilio Siciliano and Jonas Wendelborn.
“Market participants could be subject to significant margin calls and/or have trouble sourcing and transporting appropriate physical gold for delivery in derivatives contracts, leaving themselves exposed to potentially large losses,” they wrote.
—> Gold markets cited by ECB as risk to financial stability - MINING.COM
SILVER
TURKEY
Turkey has discovered 75 billion cubic meters of natural gas worth $30 billion dollars in the Black Sea, according to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan said the country will continue exploration “until we achieve our goal of complete energy independence.”
Turkish Lira falls to an all-time low closing price against the U.S. Dollar
BRICS
According to the Russian Foreign Minister, payments in national currencies in trade among BRICS countries total more than 65%.
MINING
Copper
Morgan Stanley on copper: The physical copper market looks tight ... In China, inventories are drawing rapidly and the Yangshan premium is rising, both LME and Shanghai copper are in backwardation and treatment charges are turning even more negative, suggesting challenges in sourcing copper concentrate
CHINA
China has launched the world's first and largest fleet of 100 driverless electric mining trucks, equipped with Huawei technology.
USA & CONGO DEAL
Officials from the Democratic Republic of Congo are optimistic they can reach a deal with Washington next month to secure US investment in critical minerals, the Financial Times reports
NVIDIA
CULTURE
French crypto boss' daughter being attacked on a Paris street during a botched kidnapping, crypto executive Alexandre Aimonino- https://x.com/Reuters/status/1923488628166230426
Great post! Got lots of value from it.
Is zelensky first ? Is it donald ?