June 2025: Global MacroΩInsights
Politics, Economics & Culture - Edition 018
POLITICS
Colombia
Colombian presidential candidate Miguel Uribe was shot by a 15 year old in early June. He was speaking at a conference where the assassination attempt occurred. He is in extreme condition from having been shot in the head. Later in the month another individual was arrested for their involvement in hiring the 15 year old as a hired gun.
Miguel Uribe is the son of Diana Turbay, a famed journalist who was killed after being kidnapped by Pablo Escobar's Medellin Cartel, and grandson of Julio Cesar Turbay, who led Colombia from 1978 to 1982.
Colombia: 15-Year-Old Gunman Shoots Presidential Candidate Miguel Uribe | Firstpost America | N18G
Thailand & Cambodia Clash
Thailand and Cambodia say they will return to agreed border positions after the fatal clash. As you read this news, this clash has officially escalated. Video below shows the current conflict occurring as you read this at the end of July.
Current July video on clash
Thailand-Cambodia Clash: Tensions Escalated Dramatically Over A Long-Standing Border Dispute
Rwanda & Congo Peace Deal
Rwanda and Congo sign peace agreement in Washington led by Donald J. Trump.
Israel & Iran Escalates
Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, in a major escalation in the standoff over Tehran’s nuclear program that risks sparking a new war in the Middle East. Even as you read this development in July, this issue is not actually solved.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir stated after the military strike on Iran began that "We launched an attack because the time has come, we reached the point of no return. We cannot wait for another time to act, we have no choice. Distant and recent history has taught us that in the face of aspirations to destroy us, we must not bow our heads, and thus we fight to preserve our existence. Freedom is given to those who are willing to fight for it."
Outcomes of Israel’s Multiple Rounds of Attack
The Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami has been eliminated in tonight’s Israeli strikes against the Iranian capital of Tehran
Israel attacks hit at least six military bases around Tehran, including Parchin, and residential homes at two highly secure complexes for military commanders and multiple residential buildings around Tehran, in what appears to be targeted assassinations, according to four senior Iranian officials. IDF said it had hit 6 Iranian airports, destroying 15 jets and helicopters, crippling runways and Iran’s airpower in a second round of missile attacks.
Initially, Rubio said the US was not involved in Israeli strikes against Iran.
Iran Response
Iran Response Iranian hypersonic missiles directly hit Tel Aviv, Israel after Iran launched retaliatory airstrikes at Israel. The attacks followed Israel's biggest-ever military strike against Iran, its longtime enemy.
Iran Unleashes New-Gen Missiles, Hits Israeli Heartland | GRAVITAS
Iranian missile hits Israeli cities like Ashdod and Haifa
IRGC Launches 'Wave 17': Haifa Explodes in Broad Daylight, Video Viral As Iranian Missiles Rain Hell
Iran’s armed forces declared that no ship would be allowed to cross the Strait of Hormuz until further notice, one of the most critical maritime chokepoints on Earth.
USA Then Strikes
President Trump said the US "WILL NOT ALLOW ANY ENRICHMENT OF URANIUM" by Iran.
U.S. General Caine Gives Remarks on U.S. strikes on Iran
Commentary by IAEA General
“We did not have any PROOF of a systematic effort [by Iran] to move toward a nuclear weapon” — IAEA Director General Grossi on CNN
CNN compiled a series of clips showing Israeli PM Netanyahu warning since 1996 that Iran is close to developing a nuclear weapon.
ISRAEL & LEBANON
Israel restarts bombing of Lebanon at the end of the month. Hezbollah militants from Lebanon are said to be an Iranian funded group.
TURKEY & The Gullen Movement
361 PEOPLE have been detained in just two weeks in Turkey as Pres. Erdogan ramps up his crackdown on the Gülen movement. The following video is of the President of Turkey Erdogan speaking on the Gulen movement 11 years ago in 2014.
This video is from 2011 on Fethullah Gulen and his movement. It was a supposed “New Islamic Order” aka “A more progressive Islam out” in Turkey.
Interview with exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen on France 24
The former President of the United States Obama, giving remarks on Turkish Coup from the Gulen Movement and President Erdogan’s crackdown.
USA
Tump VS Elon
President Donald Trump said Elon Musk will pay “very serious consequences” if the billionaire tech mogul funds Democratic candidates that challenge lawmakers who backed Republicans’ sweeping tax-and-spending bill
Elon has begun criticizing Trump after leaving his role with DOGE, especially on issues like spending and debt, and The Epstein story.
Elon Musk proposes creating a new political party in America that "represents the 80% in the middle."
Trump VS Harvard
President Donald Trump signed an executive action that prevents foreign nationals from entering the US to study at Harvard University, accusing the school of failing to implement discipline on campus and fostering a dramatic rise in crime.
US & UN
The US vetoes a UN Security Council demand for an ‘immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire’ between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and unhindered aid access across the enclave
Sen. Mike Lee proposes ousting every member of Congress when inflation rises too high
Senator Mike Lee “I’m drafting a constitutional amendment to oust every member of Congress whenever inflation exceeds 3% or deficit exceeds 3% of GDP.
USA VS Canada Trade Battle
Canada rescinds the Digital Services Tax to advance US trade talks
US vs Japan Trade
President Donald Trump threatened to impose a fresh tariff level on Japan, citing what he said was the country’s unwillingness to accept rice exports from the US.
US Supreme Court lets parents opt kids out of classes with LGBT storybooks.
President Trump Provides for the Revocation of Syria Sanctions
June 30th, President Donald J. Trump signed a historic Executive Order terminating the Syria sanctions program to support the country’s path to stability and peace. Read more from White House –. Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Provides for the Revocation of Syria Sanctions – The White House
The US Government arrests a Chinese national for smuggling a dangerous biological pathogen into the country.
ENGLAND
Prime Minister Starmer declares the United Kingdom is moving to "war-fighting readiness."
Europe is using the re-industrialization of their military to boost their economy. The lessons of the past have not been learnt, and they will further distort the reality of their economies by leveraging war time spending as an economic uplifter. They do not want wars to end, for their spending would be for not.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE Re-escalates
Ukraine again tried to destroy the Crimean Bridge using an underwater drone. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) said it had "mined the supports" of the bridge with explosives equivalent to 1,100kg of TNT, which "severely damaged" the bottom level of the supports.
Trump left in dark before Ukraine attacked Russia with drones.
Russia retaliates with massive missile strikes in Kiev.
Canada has again committed $20 billion to Ukraine.
Russia seizes control of Ukraine's 100 acre lithium reserve near the village of Shevchenko in eastern Ukraine, one of the largest in Europe
SUDAN
Sudan's new Prime Minister Kamil Idris dissolves government, state news agency reported. Idris was appointed by army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan's head of state. Idris took the oath of office on June 1st as the country's first prime minister since a military-led coup in 2021.
GERMANY
German Defence
German defense manufacturers including Rheinmetall are urging domestic steelmakers to ramp up production of military-grade metal to secure their long-term ability to make armored trucks and tanks. Currently, Germany’s defense industry is largely dependent on Swedish supplier SSAB AB. This creates risks in the event of disruptions, especially when demand is growing. In response, two German companies, Salzgitter AG and Dillinger Hüttenwerke, have already announced their readiness to work with the defense sector. Salzgitter is one of Europe’s largest steel mills. Demand is growing rapidly: Rheinmetall needs thousands of tons of military steel every year — twice as much as two years ago.
NATO
Spain will oppose NATO’s proposal to raise the defense spending target to 5% of a country’s GDP, setting up a potential confrontation with US President Donald Trump.
The Prime Minister of Canada says the country can meet its rising NATO spending obligations in part by leveraging its rich supply of critical minerals. For Canada that 5% comes out to about C$150 billion ($109 billion), he said, before clarifying “a little less than a third of that overall number is spending on things that quite frankly we’re already doing to build the resilience of our economy.” - Prime Minister says Canada’s mines to help pay $110 billion NATO bill - MINING.COM
Denmark Military Exercise in Greenland
Denmark is holding one of its largest military exercises in Greenland after President Trump’s repeated suggestions that the US might acquire the semi-autonomous Danish territory by force
ECONOMICS
Central Banks
ECB - The European Central Bank has voted for another interest rate cut
FED - Fed holds key rate steady at 4.25% - 4.5%, This marks 4th straight meeting the FED left rates unchanged
The Federal Reserve has losses of $231 billion at the end of May on their balance sheet.
Grok On FED losses - The reported losses likely stem from the Fed’s net income turning negative, a trend noted since 2023. Rising interest rates—peaking at 5.33% in August 2023 before cuts in September 2024—have increased the Fed’s interest expenses on bank reserves and reverse repurchase agreements (RRPs), outpacing its interest income from securities. For instance, in 2023, expenses hit $281 billion against $163.8 billion in income, leading to a $114.3 billion loss, the largest in Fed history. By March 2025, accumulated negative net income reached a deferred asset of $225 billion, an accounting mechanism where losses are recorded but do not immediately impact monetary policy operations.
PBOC - The People’s Bank of China Governor also said that one option is to promote a super-sovereign currency, using IMF special drawing rights (SDRs) as a possible choice.
the people’s bank of china governor says in the future, the global monetary system could continue to evolve toward a situation where a few sovereign currencies co-exist, compete and check and balance each other
BOC - The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.
Bank of Canada decision statement → Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2¾% - Bank of Canada
Swiss, Swedish & Norwegian Central Banks
4 major central banks are reducing their balance sheets: The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England are all simultaneously lowering their asset holdings. Currently by ~$120 billion a month.
USA
National Debt crossed $37 Trillion
Dollar sinks to three-year low as Trump tariff threats continue
China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries have dropped to $757 billion by end of April 2025. The lowest level since 2009. This makes a 16 year low.
In April, among the top three foreign holders of US Treasuries — China, Japan and the United Kingdom — only China reduced its position. Japan raised its holdings by US$3.7 billion to US$1.13 trillion, while the United Kingdom increased its holdings by US$28.4 billion to US$807.7 billion.
U.S. Banks are now sitting on $413 billion in unrealized losses as of Q1 2025.
US Unemployment Benefit Claims Surged To 8 Month Highs Ending May 31st 2025
U.S. Treasury just bought back $10 Billion of its own debt, the largest Treasury buyback in history
Based on an official report from the US Bureau of the Fiscal Service, as cited by Hokanews, the buyback program on 3 June 2025 received bids totaling USD 22.87 billion and absorbed the full USD 10 billion target.
“I think the buyback amount is too small compared to the total federal debt of USD 36.5 trillion to draw any significant conclusions,” said a bond market observer on 7 June.
He speculated there were three reasons why US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—a seasoned hedge fund figure and former Chief Investment Officer at Soros Fund Management and founder of global investment firm Key Square Group—decided to conduct a buyback:
First, the bonds being bought are illiquid. So the aim is to improve trading in those specific bonds.
Second, to smooth cash flow in terms of issuance (of new bonds) and maturity management—essentially replacing maturing bonds with longer-dated ones that have better liquidity profiles.
Third, to reduce costs slightly by repurchasing high-interest bonds and replacing them with lower-rate ones. “This buyback is reportedly part of a quarterly target totaling USD 30 billion.”
SOURCE —> US conducts USD 10 billion bond buyback, the largest in history | IDNFinancials
US Stock Market
S&P 500 hits new all-time high in pre-market trading and it closes with 2nd highest closing price in history.
It’s all about liquidity: The S&P 500 has hit a new all-time high, fueled by record levels of US money supply.
Technology is once again at the forefront of market momentum, leading sector gains over the past month as investors pile back into growth
US job numbers have been revised down by a massive 219,000 so far in 2025.
April -30,000 / March -108,000 / February -49,000 / January -32,000
22 out of the last 28 months have been revised down since the beginning of 2023.
Investors are dumping U.S. Bonds at the fastest pace since the onset of Covid
GERMANY
German job market is deteriorating:
The number of unemployed people in Germany hit 2.96 MILLION in May, the highest in at least 10 YEARS. The unemployment rate sits at 6.3%.
BRICS
Vietnam has officially gained admission to BRICS as a “partner country”. "The Brazilian government announces Vietnam's official accession as a partner country," the ministry said in a statement. Vietnam has become the association's 10th partner, with a population size of nearly 100 million people.
Colombia has officially joined the BRICS bank.
“I welcome the news that goes beyond financial matters and broadens our horizons. Colombia has officially joined the BRICS bank led by Dilma Rousseff following the application made by President Gustavo Petro in Shanghai. We continue to pave the way towards new opportunities for the country”
Colombian Minister of Foreign Affairs Laura Sarabia
Russian President Putin says BRICS is launching major initiatives
"Today, BRICS nations are already setting the bar for the development of the so-called human-centered industries, and launching major projects aimed at improving living conditions. Mutual trade turnover between our countries has already exceeded $1 trillion and continues to grow." the Russian leader said
"Today, BRICS nations are already setting the bar for the development of the so-called human-centered industries, and launching major projects aimed at improving living conditions. BRICS countries implement large-scale initiatives related to nuclear energy, aviation, new materials, the IT-industry, robotics and artificial intelligence. And we certainly pay special attention to strengthening ties within BRICS," Putin said.
GOLD
Gold overtook euro as global reserve asset in 2024, ECB said. “Central banks continued to accumulate gold at a record pace,” the bank wrote, noting that 2024 was the third year in a row in which gold purchases surpassed 1,000 tonnes — twice as fast as the decade of the 2010s. According to the World Gold Council, the largest buyers of gold last year were Poland, Turkey, India and China, which together accounted for about a quarter of the global purchases.
Gold is winning over the hearts of Argentines, a nation once almost irrationally devoted to the dollar
Bank of America see gold prices reaching $4,000 an ounce within the next year due to a ballooning US fiscal debt.
“While the war between Israel and Iran can always escalate, conflicts are not usually a sustained bullish price driver,” they wrote. “As such, the trajectory of the U.S. budget negotiations will be critical, and if fiscal shortfalls don’t decline, the fallout from that plus market volatility may end up attracting more buyers.”
Germany and Italy pressed to bring $245bn of gold home from US stored in the Federal Reserve vaults of New York
Today, the Shanghai Gold Exchange said that it will list 2 new gold contracts in Hong Kong to expand the opening up of the gold market to the outside world.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange opened its first offshore warehouse in Hong Kong on Thursday, a move that is likely to bolster the international trading of its contracts.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange has expanded outside mainland China for the first time, with the rollout of two new contracts and a bullion vault in Hong Kong.
“The buying and selling of gold at the new vault will also significantly improve the transaction volume of offshore yuan,” said Doris Bao, the founder of Gold Harvest Consulting. “The vault also means that China can now import gold in yuan rather than dollars,” further supporting de-dollarization, said Bao, who is also a consultant for London Bullion Market Association.
Several life insurers in India are seeking approval to invest in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Multiple life insurance companies have sought permission from Irdai to make investments in gold ETFs. This initiative follows the rising gold prices, heightened worldwide demand and the necessity to diversify portfolios, particularly when conventional investment avenues are yielding lower returns.
"The sharp contrast in performance is pushing us to explore gold ETFs under unit-linked insurance plans (ULIPs) to improve portfolio returns and add a hedge against market uncertainty.” ET quoted an insurance executive who submitted this suggestion to the regulator as saying.
China continues to secretly buy 10x more gold (27 tonnes) than it reports (3 tonnes)
SILVER
Silver prices soared to their highest in more than 13 years
COPPER
BofA on Copper: China’s refined copper imports have been resilient, with May’s shipments coming in close to the longer-term average, highlighting that underlying demand has held up. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of very tight mine supply, concentrated imports keep hovering around record highs, one reason treatment charges (the remuneration miners pay the smelter to process feedstock) are at record lows.
Goldman Sachs on Copper: The ongoing US Section 232 copper investigation continues to drive an unusually wide gap between COMEX (US) and LME (UK) prices, resulting in the US over-importing ~400kt of copper so far this year. US inventory has risen to over 100 days worth of consumption, up from just 33 days at the beginning of the year. We upgrade our 2H 2025 LME copper price forecast to an average of $9,890, up from $9,140 previously. We expect the copper price to rise to a peak for the year of $10,050 in August due to the tariff-driven reduction in ex-US stocks, and (2) China sentiment and activity remaining relatively resilient.
Goldman Sachs update on copper, 'Robust Chinese Demand And US Over-Importing Is Tightening The Ex-US Copper Market': China’s refined copper demand has increased by 12% YTD May. Domestic demand is a significant driver. China solar installations are up 150%, and AC sales are up 8%. Our end-use tracker indicates 13% YTD growth, after finished product exports, supporting 12% YTD growth in refined copper demand.
This strong demand, coupled with price-driven record US imports, is tightening the global copper market, particularly ex-US. We expect China’s imports to rise seasonally in 2H. Consequently, we see upside risks to our August LME copper forecast of $10,050/t as China and the US compete for copper and inventories drop to record lows ex-US. This will also continue to tighten LME and Shanghai forward spreads, which at a steep backwardation can close the US import arbitrage.
TD on Copper: Copper must make its way into the LME to prevent legitimate fears of a stock-out. The market has been wrong-footed by Liberation day; expecting a sharp slowdown in demand, whereas our proprietary real-time estimates point to no evidence of a slowdown in commodity demand growth. Meanwhile, the threat of section 232 tariffs on copper has been sucking copper inventories from the rest-of-world, at the same time as Chinese stockpiling has further sapped inventories from the world. Now, as LME inventories have reached critically low levels, time spreads have blown out, which should incentivize metal to flow back into the system. Shanghai traders have been on the offer in SHFE copper. If metal does not imminently make its way back into the system, legitimate fears of a stock-out a-la 2021 will reemerge.
One of the copper market’s biggest-ever squeezes is unfolding on the London metal exchange
Platinum
Platinum price surges to 11-year high on supply concerns. Earlier this month, platinum surged past the $1,200-an-ounce mark for the first time in four years amid signs of growing market tightness.
Cobalt
The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its ban on exports of cobalt by three months as the world’s dominant producer of the battery metal tries to convert its supply power into pricing power.
Infrastructure Moves
China and India have approved the construction of the largest capacity of new coal-fired power plants in a decade, according to the International Energy Agency
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has called his government’s 10-year industrial strategy “a turning point” for the nation’s economy, but for an oil and gas lobby, the plan must include tax reform for North Sea energy producers
Taiwan’s top presidential aide discussed energy cooperation with US officials at a summit this week in Alaska, where a liquefied natural gas project has come into focus for potential exporting to the island.