December 2024: Global MacroΩInsights
Politics, Culture & Economics - Edition 012
Sorry for the delay on publishing the Global MacroΩInsights report for the month of December. It has been a busy month of writing and traveling. I am currently working alongside Ronnie from In Gold We Trust to contribute in this years 2025 Report. I also just came back from Vancouver where I attended MIF - Metals Investment Conference and VRIC right afterwards where I help run the conference.
About this months report:
On the subject of Politics, it was a very busy month with a certain trend being seen, a lot of domestic political chaos, especially across Europe. With issues ranging from the struggle between current powers and emerging powers and Western versus Eastern influences. As you will see in the political section: France, Germany, Romania, Georgia and South Korea are dealing with these problems entering 2025.
The trend is getting worse, not better. This is socioeconomic regression. Outcomes are always a by product of human activity. No matter how we package up our story in the face of history, time will eventually do its thing.
As for the Economics section, don’t forget to scan through the 3rd section of this report further below. There is plenty of developments from infrastructure, mining, Central Banks, data on current economic conditions of major economics, BRICS, market trends, gold and silver.
POLITICS
USA
With Trump to be the next president (yes he is officially president by the time you read this).
VIDEO: Trump details his plans for day 1 and beyond in an interview.
The statement that started off as a potential joke……. Turning into a big discussion and potentially the outcome of North America……The 51st State …. Canada
My personal take as a Canadian on this 51st state statement is as follows, which Kevin O'Leary also makes some strong points.
A new cultural and economic revolution bringing new life and energy to north America. While the world is deglobalizing, and fighting more and more, collaboration between 2 incredible neighbors should be sought after.
Being able to eliminate barriers such as taxes, tariffs and border issues between Canada and USA
Allow the new union to tap into the massive resource wealth of Canada, allowing America to quickly bypass the dominion that the eastern blocks have on resources.
USD $ is better than the Canadian dollar. This supports the demand for US currency by removing the Canadian currency.
Reducing income and capital gain taxes for Canadians.
I do not think there are really any economic arguments against this move, other than cultural and political ones. But my basis to any development or progress should be taken from an economic lens. Pierre Poilievre naturally will be against this for he has an interest in Canadian politics as he wants to be the next Prime Minister, and as such wants his turn to dictate the trend of Canadian politics.
The leader of Canada’s largest provincial economy Ontario says China would be the main beneficiary if North America becomes engulfed in a trade war. I agree, since the trade war would be over resources tying into the expanding macro trend of economic warfare with resources at the center. And the East dominates the resources. Canada & USA have a trade relationship that’s worth more than $900 billion a year.
Some of Doug Ford’s statements:
“Depending how far this goes, we will go to the extent of cutting off their energy, going down to Michigan, going down to New York state, and over to Wisconsin.”
“Canada has the critical minerals that they need for their manufacturing, for their military.”
“I would argue that our energy exports are our queen in this game of chess.”
Canada shipped 59% of its critical minerals exports to the US in 2023, representing about C$29.8 billion ($20.7 billion). In turn, the majority of US imports of aluminum, uranium and potash come from Canada, according to US government data. The US trade deficit in goods and services was about $41 billion last year, according to the US Census Bureau, driven largely by American purchases of Canadian energy. Refineries in the US Midwest are particularly large customers of Canadian oil companies: Fuel makers in the region rely on Canada for 46% of the crude they turn into gasoline and diesel. ‘The Only People That Win Is China’: Ontario Premier Makes Trade Plea to Trump
On another note, Trump’s transition team seeks to pull the US out of WHO ‘on day one’ they state (they do). The less America works with globalist institutions such as the WHO, WEF, UN, NATO the better. This world is being plagued by western institutions encroaching on other territories creating this de-westernization trend and fueling much of the growing geo-political conflicts.
The House Covid Committee released its final report after a 2 year investigation
Link to report here → House COVID committee Report
MAJOR FINDINGS:
The NIH funded gain-of-function research at the Wuhan lab.
The Constitution can't be suspended in times of crisis.
COVID emerging from a lab leak is "not a conspiracy theory."
EcoHealth and Dr. Peter Daszak should "never again" receive taxpayer funds.
Public health officials have lost the trust of the people.
Trump's Operation Warp Speed was a success.
The COVID response was "rampant" with fraud, waste and abuse.
"The prescription cannot be worse than the disease," lockdowns had horrific consequences.
The House passed funding to keep the US government operating until mid-March 2025 just hours before a midnight shutdown deadline. The legislation went to Biden early Saturday morning after the Senate voted 85 to 11 to approve the measure. This kicks future spending decisions into Donald Trump’s presidency.
Naturally as always, as if this hasn't been happening non stop for a few years now. Always repeating this pattern, wait until the last second while complaining about needing to raise the debt ceiling, then last second raise the debt ceiling.
FBI Director Chris Wray resigns, opening the seat up for Kash Patel, the Trump nominee.
The following video is a commercial by Palantir showing the future of warfare with swarms of drones. Must watch:
Joe Biden Gives Away Pardons
Hunter Biden
Then announces Clemency for nearly 1500 people, making it the biggest single day clemency in modern history.
More Ukrainian Support
White House announces the delivery of $725 million in additional weapons and equipment for Ukraine’s defense. This marks the 71st tranche of equipment to be provided by the Biden administration. The capabilities in this announcement include:
Munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
Stinger missiles;
Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) munitions;
Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition;
Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS);
Non-persistent land mines;
Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
Small arms and ammunition;
Demolitions equipment and munitions;
Equipment to protect critical national infrastructure; and
Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.
Meanwhile Canada bans another 324 firearm varieties and plans to send confiscated weapons from citizens to Ukraine. These guns the public safety minister said belong on the battlefield, not in the hands of hunters or sport shooters. This follows a ban from May 2020 where 1500 makes and models were banned.
The European Union Chief, Valdis Dombrovskis says that the EU should consider confiscating frozen Russian Central Bank assets to fund Ukraine. “There is an established principle under international law that the aggressor is liable for the damage which it’s creating, so we must find ways how to make Russia pay for the damage it is creating in Ukraine.”
The EU and the G-7 nations have tapped the profits generated by some $300 billion in sanctioned Russian assets to provide aid to Ukraine. Euroclear Ltd., a Brussels-based clearing house, holds the largest tranche of Russia’s immobilized deposits, totaling €180 billion. Several member states, including Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg, and the ECB remain concerned that confiscation could breach the principle of a state’s immunity under international law and impact the euro as a reserve currency, as well as the euro area’s financial stability.
NATO Chief Mark Rutte says we are not ready for what is coming in 4 to 5 years and states that "It's time to shift to a wartime mindset."
Energy Conflict with Ukraine
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened to cut off back up power supplies to Ukraine if Kyiv stops transporting Russian gas to Central Europe. Slovakia still receives Russian oil that transits Ukraine through the Druzhba pipeline. Fico justified the threat by pointing to the significant impact that stopping flows of Russian gas would have on Europe’s economy. The European Union will face an additional 120 billion euros ($125 billion) in energy costs over the next two years as a result of a halt. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy pushed back and accused Fico, who met with Putin in Moscow on Dec. 22, of striking “shadow agreements” with Putin.
RUSSIA
Russia’s Chief Biolab investigator was assassinated in a supposed Ukrainian-Style bombing, when a device hidden in a scooter was detonated remotely.
Lt Gen Igor Kirillov, head of the Radiation, Biological and Chemical Defence Forces exposed that: "The Rosemont Seneca Investment Fund, headed by Hunter Biden, and the Soros Foundation are involved in financing biological laboratories in Ukraine." This is not new, even within Senate hearings have we heard the mention of biolabs being built in Ukraine, supported by Western forces.
→ Senate hearing in USA nearly 3 years ago in 2022 about Ukraine and biolabs
A large Ukrainian kamikaze drone hit a Russian Military Camp in Grozny, Chechnya:
VIDEO —>
SOUTH KOREA
Another big development in the month of December on the deterioration of domestic politics around the world was seen in South Korea.
Early Dec, the president declared martial law in an emergency national address saying it was made to protect freedom and constitutional order as he accused the opposition of trying to paralyze the administration with impeachment moves.
“Through the declaration of martial law, I will rebuild and protect a free South Korea.”
South Korea’s parliament rejected the declaration of martial law. The opposition leader declares a coup stating:
“Yoon Suk Yeol is no longer the president of South Korea." and that he declared “an illegal emergency declaration that is invalid.”
Former President Yoon Suk Yeol refused to resign despite his impeachment. The opposition to his leadership, introduced a bill to impeach the acting President Han Duck-soo who was meant to replace Yoon after he imposed martial law. The acting President is causing turmoil internally as opposition MPs argued that he was refusing demands to complete Yoon's impeachment process. He blocked the appointment of three judges that parliament had chosen to oversee Yoon's case.
Korea's Constitutional Court is typically made up of a nine-member bench. At least six judges must uphold Yoon's impeachment in order for the decision to be upheld. There are currently only six judges on the bench, meaning a single rejection would save Yoon from being removed. The opposition had hoped the three additional nominees would help improve the odds of Yoon getting impeached. This is the first time an acting president has been impeached since South Korea became a democracy.” - South Korea votes to impeach acting president Han Duck-soo
South Korea’s prosecutors indicted former Defense Minister Kim Yong-Hyun over his involvement in President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration.
CHINA
China has imposed sanctions on 13 US military companies in retaliation for Washington’s planned arms sales to Taiwan. China also warned the United States against "playing with fire" over military aid to Taiwan.
During this same time Taiwan reported a surge of Chinese military aircraft, ships operating nearby.
Will not be surprised to see this continue to become a growing problem. Do not forget that the naval fleet of China is larger than the US’. The US fleet is also split up around the world between conflicts leaving China with a strong position to dominate the South Sea China.
China in December also warned the UK not to "make trouble" after it barred a Chinese businessman with close links to Prince Andrew from entering the country.
China launched the first of its next-generation amphibious assault ships, as the Chinese navy ramps up capabilities amid growing territorial tensions.
Chinese state-sponsored hackers breached the U.S. Treasury Department's computer security guardrails this month and stole documents in what the Treasury called a "major incident," according to a letter to lawmakers that Treasury officials provided. China refuses the claims.
BANGLADESH
A committee formed by interim leader Muhammad Yunus has claimed that an average of $16 billion may have been illicitly siphoned out of Bangladesh annually during the former minister’s rule who was outed by mass violent protests.
IMF —> The IMF has reached an agreement to provide about $645 million in funds to Bangladesh, as it looks to recover from recent political turmoil and rebuild its foreign reserves.
MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT
SYRIA Falls
Syrian rebels officially declared victory in Syria 12 days after they initiated their attacks as the President escapes from the country. This was in support from western forces. Former commander of Al-Qaeda, and current leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Abu Mohammed al-Jolani is the new leader of Syria.
He stated:
“Now, after all that has happened, sanctions must be lifted because they were targeted at the old regime. The victim and the oppressor should not be treated in the same way”
“HTS should be de-listed as a terrorist organization. It is designated as one by the UN, US, EU and UK, among many others, as it started as a splinter group of al-Qaeda, that broke away in 2016.”
"Syrian committee of legal experts to write a constitution. They will decide. And any ruler or president will have to follow the law."
Israel launched an attack in the buffer zone in the Quneitra area, "in order to strengthen the defense of the border with Syria.” Israel says it has carried out hundreds of strikes on Syria, targeting strategic weapons stockpiles.
US conducts dozens of airstrikes to eliminate what was deemed ISIS camps in Central Syria. Russia has a major Airbase and a significant Naval base in Syria.
Former President Assad has released his first statement on fleeing from Syria:
ISRAEL VS HOUTHIS
Israel conducts major airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. This includes a hit on Yemen’s airport and Red Sea Port
Tel Aviv gets attacked with a direct attack from a ballistic missile.
ROMANIA
Romania goes through domestic political chaos as the court cancels Presidential elections. Top court threw a curveball and canceled the results of elections, citing alleged "Russian interference" in the elections. President Klaus Iohannis, who was supposed to step down, is now staying put until a redo, likely in March 2025. There is a lot of mention of unfair campaigns being run on Tik Tok……
A conversation about this is seen here in the following video:
Notice this trend of western governments or pro-western governments always using Russia as justification for their power grabs or denial of electoral results.
This sparked thousands to gather in the streets to protest the top Court decision to cancel elections.
GEORGIA
The new president of Georgia, Mikheil Kavelashvili, who was just elected, having thrown out the old President, a French citizen, from the cabinet, declared that Georgia will not join the EU. Outgoing president Salome Zourabichvili refused to step down, saying she was the "only legitimate president". She is a pro-Western bureaucrat. And the west appears to want to reject the election outcomes and using Russian interference as justification.
Political unrest continues as protests continue as EU talks fall apart. Pro EU protestors took to the streets. This country is showing the clash between Eastern and Western “influence” impacting domestic issues for many countries.
The US imposed sanctions on Georgia's former prime minister and billionaire founder of Georgian Dream, Bidzina Ivanishvili.
GERMANY
German Chancellor Scholz loses parliamentary confidence vote. German President Steinmeier dissolves parliament, paving way for early elections in February 2025.
FRANCE
French opposition lawmakers brought the government down, throwing the European Union's second-biggest economic power deeper into a political crisis that threatens its capacity to legislate and rein in a massive budget deficit. Michel Barnier has been ousted by a non-confidence vote.
M. Emmanuel Macron, President of the Republic, has appointed M. François Bayrou Prime Minister and tasked him with forming a government
ENGLAND
The UK says it's successfully tested its new radio-wave weapon that kills drones from 1,000 yards at $0.10 a shot. These weapons are being called RFDEW - Radio Frequency Directed Energy Weapons. These development systems can detect, track and engage a range of threats across land, air and sea.
CANADA
Chrystia Freeland resigns as the Minister of Finance. Her statement is as follows:
CULTURE
Assassination
United Healthcare CEO was murdered and the current primary suspect is the young adult Luigi Mangione:
Christian School Shot Up
A shooting at a Christian school in Madison, Wisconsin, left five people dead, including the suspected shooter and children, and at least five others injured
Attack @ XMAS Market in Germany
A Saudi man attacks a Christmas market in Magdeburg Germany, driving a car full speed into a crowd.
Followed by large crowds protesting immigration and wanting to show their grief.
Nobel Minds 2024
Watch the featured 2024 Nobel laureates in physics, chemistry, medicine, and economic sciences. In this discussion, moderated by Zeinab Badawi, the laureates engage with students, delving into their groundbreaking research, the significance of their discoveries, and the broader implications for science and society.
ECONOMICS
CENTRAL BANKS
FED → cut rates by 25 basis points while signaling a slower pace of rate cuts for 2025 with only 2 rate cuts projected by end of 2025
VIDEO → FOMC Press Conference, December 18, 2024
Jerome Powell stated that people feel the effect of high prices, not high inflation. Make that make sense lol……. It is like when Chrystia Freeland, the minister of Finance for Canada stated that people are in a “viberecession” when in reality the data shows the economy is doing “great”…… what does she actually even understand of economics? She speaks for others who know far more than her. Because clearly, she speaks of some alternate world.
BOC → cut rates by 50 basis points to 3.25%
ECB → ECB cut interests for the 4th time in 2024 by 25 basis points. The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points.
The ECB will go on lowering borrowing costs in 2025, according to Governing Council member Boris Vujcic
BOE → maintained rates @ 4.75%
The Bank of England will hide the identities of any pension funds, insurers or hedge funds bailed out under a new financial stability tool to prevent a wider crisis engulfing the economy, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden says.
The BOE has accepted submissions by so-called “shadow banks” that “revealing too much information could create stigma” about using the bail-out tool, which would undermine any rescue effort and risk creating more financial instability
“Vulnerabilities like hedge fund leverage and concentration are a specific example of the vulnerabilities that could lead to system-wide risks,” Ramsden said. The BOE needs to “monitor and understand what those developments might mean for the financial system.”
“To further mitigate the risk of stigma, the bank intends to publish the number of firms that are signed up to the CNRF, but we would not reveal any names; and in the event that we activate the CNRF, we would only disclose borrowing at an aggregate level.”
BOJ → rates were kept unchanged keeping short term policy rates at 0.25%
PBOC → benchmark lending rates remain steady, keeping its one-year and five-year LPRs unchanged at 3.1 and 3.6% respectively.
Later in the month, at 2 different moments, the PBOC injected $109.6 billion Yuan and $192.3 billion Yuan via 7-DAY reverse repos at 1.50%:
CHINA
China 30Y bonds are trading 30bps inside Japan. Fiscal stimulus is the only way out for them. The question is how long will this be a “solution”? Deflation is the boogie man right now , hiding in the emerging cracks of the economy. The Japanification of China bonds is going around now online.
The last time China 1Y bond traded below 1%, Lehman had just filed for bankruptcy. Less than a week after we showed the historic collapse in Chinese interest rates, which sent China's 1Y yield below 1% for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis, in a move that signaled the bond market is convinced Beijing will unleash massive stimulus...
Chinese authorities report that they agreed to issue 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion USD) worth of special treasury bonds for 2025, making it the highest on record. This marks a 200% increase from 2024’s 1 trillion yuan issuance. The proceeds will be targeted at boosting consumption via subsidy programs, equipment upgrades by businesses and funding investments in innovation-driven advanced sectors, among other initiatives.
The "new" initiatives consist of a subsidy program for durable goods, allowing consumers to trade in old cars or appliances and buy new ones at a discount, and a separate one that subsidizes large-scale equipment upgrades for businesses. The "major" programs refer to projects that implement national strategies such as construction of railways, airports and farmland and build security capacity in key areas, according to official documents.
Chinese holdings of US Treasury bonds fell to $760.1 billion in October and bounced back up to $768.6 billion in November. October was the fourth consecutive month that China's holdings of US Treasury bonds decreased. But the overall trend is downwards. The trend is real...
This marks the lowest level since 2009.
US ECONOMY
In a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal, outgoing U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen discussed the current state of the economy and anticipated policies under the incoming Trump administration.
Janet Yellen on the Economy and Upcoming Trump Administration Policies | WSJ
The U.S. Treasury spent $882 billion on net interest payments BY end of November. For the first time EVER, this amount exceeded what the Defense Department spent on its military programs. Notice takeaway from this report from the Committee For Responsible Federal Budget is that Interest Costs Have Nearly Tripled Since 2020.
Remember who is in charge of this Treasury…. Janet Yellen.
From Treasury: A Fiscal Report as of December 2024 which features a profile of the Economy, Financial Operations, International Statistics and Special Reports.
27 republican senators joined all senate Democrats to pass a bill increasing Social Security benefits.
Continue to watch USA’s debt levels.
Meanwhile Q3 2024 data showed that US Household wealth hit a record $168.8 Trillion. Debt has huge impact on driving “wealth”.
The record highs in the stock market is also playing a huge role in pushing the wealth numbers up.
On other hand, in December, the *DOW fell for its ninth session, longest loosing streak since 1978.
On the labor front:
Over 1.9 million are now collecting jobless benefits. highest level in 3 years.
Labor trends by sectors:
In 2024, we saw a record 18% increase in homelessness.
EU
The EU is committing to build a $11.13 billion constellation of satellites that will provide the bloc with encrypted global internet connectivity in a bid to provide a homegrown alternative to Elon Musk’s Starlink
The EU is investing €6 billion, the companies will commit €4.1 billion, and the European Space Agency will provide €550 million. The contract will last for 12 years, and part of the EU’s investment will be conditional on approval by the bloc’s member states.
Andrius Kubilius, the bloc’s new defense and space commissioner, hailed the signing as “a major step forward” for the bloc’s security and defense, saying that Europe was under threat in many ways, including from Russia’s jamming of navigation signals.
“In times of war, we can’t afford to lose connectivity”
EU also fines META more than $250 million over 2018 Facebook data breach
ENGLAND
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will today task local councils with meeting mandatory housebuilding targets, as he aims to hit his goal of delivering 370,000 new homes per year - 1.5 million homes to be built in next 5 years.
Watch Labour Government in the UK waste time debating how to get 1.5 million homes built……..
The funny thing related to the issue of homes and government can be summed up in the following development out of London:
Read —> London housing fund may require financial support, auditors say | Parliament Politics Magazine
Auditors warn that Mayor Sadiq Khan’s London housing fund faces potential taxpayer bailout after failing to meet repayment deadlines for a £300m loan. The loan was supposed to be repaid in 2018.
The Greater London Authority Land and Property Limited (GLAP), the mayor of London’s property development project, acquired £300m debt when it was formed in 2012 under Boris Johnson, after a consolidation of several public development organizations.
As one of Britain’s major public landholders, the fund is expected to construct thousands of new homes on its land to tackle the country’s ongoing housing shortage. The Fund manages 635 hectares (1,569 acres) of land, including prime areas like London’s Docklands and the Greenwich Peninsula near the O2, both of which are planned for major development to address the capital’s ongoing housing crisis.
FRANCE
Moody’s has downgraded France’s credit rating.
“The decision to downgrade France's ratings to Aa3 reflects our view that France's public finances will be substantially weakened by the country's political fragmentation which, for the foreseeable future, will constrain the scope and magnitude of measures that could narrow large deficits.”
“Moody's Ratings has today downgraded the Government of France's domestic- and foreign-currency long-term issuer and domestic-currency senior unsecured ratings to Aa3 from Aa2 and changed the outlook to stable from negative”
“On 4 December, the successful no-confidence vote in the National Assembly prompted the government to resign. Historically, France has had a poor track record of complying with fiscal targets, ranking last out of the 27 European Union (Aaa stable) countries in the European Fiscal Board's compliance tracker over the 1998-2023 period and the current political situation is not conducive to material fiscal consolidation over the next few years.”
France’s new premier Francois Bayrou vows to sharply narrow the nation’s deficit to close to 5% of GDP, a plan that threatens a repeat of the stand-off which toppled the last government
CANADA
December saw unemployment go down to 6.7% from a pre-pandemic record of 6.8%.
“In the 12 months to December, public sector employment rose by 156,000 (+3.7%), driven by gains in the public-sector components of educational services as well as health care and social assistance.”
“Private sector employment was little changed in December (+27,000; +0.2%) and was up 191,000 (+1.4%) on a year-over-year basis. The number of self-employed people rose by 24,000 (+0.9%) in December, the first increase since February. This brought total gains in self-employment for the year to 64,000 (+2.4%)”
The Canadian dollar continued to fall hitting a low point where it would cost $1.45 CAD for every $1 USD. Gets expensive to go to America. But this strength can help create alot of demand from US in Canada, especially as tourists which we will see more of that impact as summer comes around.
In a remarkable display of fiscal mismanagement, the Trudeau government ran a $61.9 billion deficit for year 2023-2024—$21.9 billion higher than the $40.0 billion deficit projected in the budget.
For the current fiscal year (2024-25), the update estimates the federal government will spend $543.4 billion while taking in $495.2 billion in revenues. This means the government plans to run a $48.3 billion deficit—$8.5 billion higher than the $39.8 billion deficit that had originally been planned just eight months ago.
These interest costs will reach an estimated $53.7 billion in 2024-25 alone—more than all revenue collected via the federal GST. In other words, every dollar that Canadians are expected to pay in GST this year will go towards federal debt interest, as opposed to any services or programs. And as the federal government continues to borrow more, all else equal, these interest costs will continue to rise.
JAPAN
Japan to issue 28.6 trillion Yen of new bonds for fiscal year 2025 budget: Kyodo.
“The government will compile a record 115.5 trillion yen ($734 billion) initial budget for fiscal 2025”
“Social security spending will rise to around 38.3 trillion yen due to the nation's aging population, while expenses for strengthening defense capabilities will reach around 8.5 trillion yen”
“Defense and social security spending continue to rise while debt-servicing costs also weigh on Japan's public finances”
Gold & Silver
Sen. Mike Moon introduced Senate Bill 25 (SB25). Under the “The Constitutional Money Act,” gold and silver would be accepted as legal tender in physical or electronic form, and would be receivable in payment of all debts contracted for in the state of Missouri.
The proposed law would also permit any entity doing business in this state to compensate its employees, in full or in part, in the dollar equivalent specie legal tender either in physical or in electronic transfer form.
SB25 includes provisions prohibiting any state or local cooperation with federal actions to confiscate gold or silver or that interfere with a person’s right to use legal tender in Missouri.
“Under no circumstance shall the state of Missouri or any department, agency, court, political subdivision, or instrumentality thereof enforce or attempt to enforce any federal acts, laws, executive orders, administrative orders, rules, regulations, statutes, or ordinances infringing on the right of a person to keep and use specie legal tender and electronic currency as provided in this section.”
CME Group to Launch 1-Ounce Gold Futures to Meet Surging Retail Demand
"We are pleased to support CME Group's launch and offer clients access to 1-Ounce Gold futures alongside the extensive range of investment products already available on our platform," said Steve Sanders, EVP of Marketing and Product Development at Interactive Brokers. "1-Ounce Gold futures give our clients the ability to transparently manage precious metals exposure while diversifying and protecting their portfolios from political and economic events at a low cost."
Mistake in India’s Gold Import Stats
India’s government acknowledged it miscalculated import figures for precious metals for months, an error that pushed the trade deficit to a record in November and caused the rupee to plunge to an all-time low.
The Ministry of Commerce and Industry said in a statement Thursday it revised import figures from April to November after discovering the discrepancy, which had resulted from migrating to a new data transmission system.
Preliminary estimates released earlier this week suggested gold imports for November stood at $9.84 billion — about $5 billion, or a third, lower than what was previously reported for the month.
Hong Kong to establish working group on promoting Gold market development :
"The establishment of an international gold trading centre is a new entry point to consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's status as an international financial centre. In this year's Policy Address, the Chief Executive stated that we would attract physical gold storage, drive gold trading, settlement and delivery activities, and even propel Hong Kong into being a gold trading centre. The Government will promote the development of world-class gold storage facilities, and building on the increased gold holdings, scale up associated support and financial services such as insurance, testing and certification, logistics, etc, as well as expanding related derivative transactions such as collateral, loans and hedging, etc, hence creating a comprehensive ecosystem in a progressive manner. This will promote a comprehensive multicurrency trading, clearing, delivery, and regulatory system, thereby establishing a holistic gold trading centre. We will also explore mutual access with the Mainland financial market when appropriate."
China imported a net 33.074 metric tons of gold in November, the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department announced on Monday. This represents a 115% increase from the 15.414 tons recorded in October and is the highest level of net imports since April 2024.
Total gold imports via Hong Kong were up 60% to 45.22 metric tons from October, their highest level in eight months.
GOLD PRICE
Gold closed the year 2024 close to $2700 USD
SILVER PRICE
Silver closed the year 2024 close to $30 USD
BRICS
WGC report reveals that BRICS holds over 20% of the gold reserves.
Trump threatens BRICS countries with 100% tariffs. A silly move to be honest. The east dominates the commodities sector.
Russia says at least 9 countries will obtain BRICS partner status on January 1, 2025:
Belarus
Bolivia
Cuba
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
Malaysia
Thailand
Uganda
Uzbekistan
COMMODITY WARFARE
China bans export to the US of Gallium, Germanium and Antimony
Statements from Officials:
"In accordance with the Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China and other relevant laws and regulations, to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations related to non-proliferation, it has been decided to strengthen export controls on relevant dual-use items to the United States. The relevant matters are announced as follows:
1. Export of dual-use items to U.S. military users or for military purposes is prohibited.
2. In principle, export licenses will not be granted for dual-use items related to gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials to the United States; for graphite dual-use items exported to the United States, stricter end-user and end-use reviews will be implemented.
Organizations and individuals from any country or region who violate the above provisions by transferring or providing relevant dual-use items originating from the People's Republic of China to U.S. organizations and individuals will be held legally accountable according to law."
After Antimony was banned as an export by China, it went soaring by 40% in one day.
The CANADA vs USA front of the Trade War
OIL & ENERGY & IFRASTRUCTURE
Russia and India sign $13,000,000,000 oil deal, the largest in history between the two countries.
A 10-year agreement to supply 500,000 barrels of crude oil per day to Indian private refiner Reliance
India overtook China as Russia’s top oil buyer in July, and is the world’s third-largest consumer of oil.
Qatar warns it will halt gas supplies to Europe if fined under EU due diligence law.
If the EU enforces new legislation that will penalize companies which fail to meet set criteria on carbon emissions, human and labor rights.
“If the case is that I lose 5 per cent of my generated revenue by going to Europe, I will not go to Europe . . . I’m not bluffing,” Kaabi said. “Five per cent of generated revenue of QatarEnergy means 5 per cent of generated revenue of the Qatar state. This is the people’s money . . . so I cannot lose that kind of money — and nobody would accept losing that kind of money.”
Qatar is one of the world’s top LNG exporters and has become an increasingly important supplier of gas to Europe in the wake of the turmoil in energy markets triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
As European states have sought to wean themselves off Russian gas, QatarEnergy has signed long term agreements to supply LNG to Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands.
Swedish energy minister slams Germany's energy policy
U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has awarded over $100 billion in grants created by its signature climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden senior advisor for international climate policy John Podesta said. Biden pushes out over $100 billion in clean energy grants as term winds down
Wind Farms
Storm Darragh leaves UK solar farm in pieces in blow to green energy | Daily Mail Online:
Storm Darragh caused significant damage to UK energy grid when thousands of solar panes from a 190 acre Porth Wen solar farm in Anglesey, North Wales.
STATS on wind farm closure:
British regulators have paid more than £1 billion ($1.3 billion) to wind farm operators for forced downtime since the beginning of this year. Companies are receiving orders to stop generating electricity at wind farms due to a capacity shortage with regard to transmission lines, the modernization of which lags behind the introduction of generating capacities. Another factor is the dependence of renewable energy sources (RES) on weather conditions: favorable wind conditions do not always coincide with peaks in power demand.
Battery Plant
The US Energy Department has signaled their intention to provide a $7.5 billion loan to Samsung & Stellantis to build 2 electric vehicle lithium-ion battery plants in Indiana.
Solar Energy
China’s solar industry, by far the world’s largest, is struggling with hefty losses after a frenzy of factory building resulted in a severe glut that has already forced some firms into bankruptcy.
“A considerable number of smaller companies won’t be able to survive the first half of next year,” Xu Xiaohua, chairman and chief executive officer of the privately held firm, said in a panel discussion at the BloombergNEF Summit in Shanghai.
China will install 230 to 260 gigawatts of solar capacity in 2024 thanks to rapid development of the nation’s desert power bases and measures to support rooftop panels
By the end of 2024, China has installed about 510 million kilowatts of wind power and 840 million kW of photovoltaic power, with the utilization rate remaining above 95 percent, driving rapid growth in both sectors, he said.
Tan Youru, a solar analyst at BloombergNEF, said China's photovoltaic industry is currently grappling with demand-side challenges, particularly issues related to capacity absorption, which are expected to slow long-term growth.
Vietnam to start construction of new $11.6 billion railway linking with China by end-2025.
The railway will stretch 417km (259 miles), connecting nine northern cities and provinces: Lao Cai, Yen Bai, Phu Tho, Vinh Phuc, Bac Ninh, Hung Yen, Hai Duong, and Hai Phong. It will also facilitate further rail connections with China in the future.
Crypto Mining
Putin bans crypto mining for 6 years across 10 regions
Putin cites its high energy consumption
The ban will end on March 2031, and primarily disrupt mining pools and independent miners.
In November, new crypto legislation went into effect in Russia requiring miners to register with the finance ministry.
MINING
Chile aims to invest $83 billion in mining through 2033:
the Cochilco report will list some 51 projects in the South American nation, which is the world’s largest producer of copper and second-largest of lithium, a key ingredient of rechargeable batteries.
This does not include a recently announced $14 billion expansion plan by mining giant BHP, whose Chilean projects include Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine.
Mexico to review bill to ban open pit mining:
“Open-pit mining warrants a thorough review, as activities such as sand extraction for cement production and lithium mining — critical for national development — are conducted using this method. It is vital to assess the specifics of the constitutional reform’s provisions” - stated Sheinbaum
Open-pit mining accounts for 60% of the value of Mexico’s national mining and metallurgical production. Camimex warns that the prohibition could lead to a 1% contraction in the country’s GDP and jeopardize nearly 200,000 jobs.
The US Energy Department has conditionally approved a $755M loan for Novonix to build North America's 1st large-scale synthetic graphite facility in Tennessee.
Once operational in 2028, the facility is expected to produce enough graphite to supply 325,000 electric vehicles (EVs) annually.
China currently controls more than 95% of global graphite supply, covering both natural and synthetic graphite. It also dominates advanced processing technologies that convert raw graphite into battery-ready material. Recent Chinese export restrictions on battery-grade graphite have heightened concerns for EV manufacturers dependent on imports
Graphite is a key component in EV batteries, and sourcing it domestically is crucial for automakers to qualify for the $7,500 US tax credit under President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Of the critical battery materials, graphite is seen as one of the hardest to secure outside of China. To help automakers adjust, the US government has introduced a grace period through 2027 that allows EVs using Chinese graphite to qualify for tax credits.
Indonesia is considering significant reductions in nickel mining to drive UP prices.
This is the world’s largest Nickel Producer, accounting for over 50% of the world’s nickel output.
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is looking at lowering the amount of nickel ore allowed to be mined next year to 150 million tons. That would be a sharp drop from 272 million tons mined in 2024.
Mongolia and France agree on $1.6 billion uranium mining deal
France’s Orano SA got the go-ahead from Mongolia’s government
The mining project will have a three-decade lifespan and an estimated production capacity of about 2,500 tons of uranium a year
CURRENCY MARKET
Chinese Yuan plunged to its weakest level against the U.S. Dollar in more than 12 months
Indian Rupee plunges to an all-time low against the U.S. Dollar.
Korean Won is on the verge of falling to its weakest level against the U.S. Dollar since the Global Financial Crisis
Nic Tartaglia
ImperiumΩMind